NEW DELHI (Diya TV) — India, the world’s most populous country with nearly 1.45 billion people, is pushing for bigger families because of data saying its fertility rate is slipping and ageing rapidly. Two southern Indian states, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, have leaders who say more children are needed because of an aging population.
Andhra Pradesh recently canceled its two-child policy for local elections and is exploring incentives for more children. Neighboring Telangana is also said to be debating changes in a similar vein. Tamil Nadu, whose fertility rate has plummeted to 1.4, is now also seeking policies to induce more births.
India’s fertility rate has dropped steadily in the years. What used to be 5.7 births per woman way back in 1950 is now two today. In fact, only 17 of India’s 29 states and union territories have reached the level of two births per woman or below it. Southern states dominate with Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka having reached this milestone years ago.
Experts believe this decline in fertility could have political and economic consequences. As the country prepares for its first electoral seat redistribution since 1976, known as delimitation, states with shrinking populations fear losing political representation and federal revenue. Southern states, which contribute significantly to the national economy, are concerned they may be penalized for their successful population control efforts.
India’s population is aging much more quickly than its wealthier counterparts, like France or Sweden, where the elderly population took several decades to double, a demography professor at the International Institute for Population Sciences said. Srinivas Goli told the BBC that the real issue lies in India’s rapid aging. India could double its elderly population within 28 years, which will place more burden on social security and healthcare systems, Goli said.
According to the United Nations Population Fund’s India Ageing Report, more than 40% of India’s elderly live in poverty. Coupled with a declining birth rate, the rapid ageing of India’s population is likely to increase the ratio of old-age dependency left with fewer caregivers for them.
Mohan Bhagwat, chief of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), recently called on Indian couples to have at least three children, warning that low fertility rates could imperil the nation’s future. However, demographers like Tim Dyson of the London School of Economics have warned that pushing for more children is unlikely to reverse the trend. According to the BBC, Dyson had warned that fertility rates at 1.6 would cause “rapid, unmanageable population decline”, but suggested that instead support for healthy and active ageing was what should be highlighted.
India’s leaders now have the challenge of balancing economic growth with the reality of the aging population. According to experts, the most efficient way to address the issue is by increasing retirement ages and investing in health and social security.
