NEW YORK (Diya TV) — A new Wall Street research report has sparked a heated public clash between prediction market operator Kalshi, a data provider, and a bank analyst. At the center of the dispute is a simple but explosive claim: everyday users on Kalshi appear to lose money faster than traditional sports gamblers. The controversy highlights a growing tension as prediction markets push into the mainstream and try to separate themselves from the gambling industry.
The conflict began when Jordan Bender, a bank analyst at Citizens, published a report comparing prediction markets with major sportsbooks such as FanDuel and DraftKings. The report relied on data from Juice Reel, a firm that tracks user performance across betting and trading platforms.
Bender’s analysis focused on early user behavior. It found that the bottom 25% of prediction market users lost about 28 cents of every dollar wagered during their first three months. By contrast, the same group of users lost roughly 11 cents per dollar on traditional sports betting sites.
The report also compared median users. According to the data, the average prediction market wallet lost around 7% of the money wagered within 90 days. Traditional sports gambling platforms showed a median loss of just 1% over the same period. The findings quickly drew attention from investors, regulators, and media outlets. They also triggered a strong response from Kalshi.
Kalshi initially rejected the findings outright. The company called the Juice Reel data “flat-out wrong” and questioned the motives behind the report.
Elisabeth Diana, Kalshi’s head of communications, went further. She claimed the analysis was tied to an alleged extortion attempt. Diana said Juice Reel’s founder offered to “defuse the situation” in exchange for an investment meeting with Kalshi’s chief executive. The accusation raised the stakes and shifted the story from a debate over data to one about ethics and credibility.
Ricky Gold, the 32-year-old CEO of Juice Reel, denied the allegation. He described the extortion claim as a “complete fabrication.” Gold said Kalshi had contacted him repeatedly after the report’s release. He claimed company representatives pressured him to walk back the data and tell Bloomberg that the numbers were inaccurate.
“They called and messaged us, pressuring us to tell Bloomberg that our data is inaccurate,” Gold said.
The back-and-forth added fuel to an already tense dispute and drew more scrutiny to Kalshi’s response.
Within hours, Kalshi adjusted its position. In an updated statement, the company said it no longer believed Juice Reel intended to extort the firm.
“After further review, we don’t believe the intention was extortion,” the statement said.
However, Kalshi continued to challenge the report’s conclusions. The company also denied trying to pressure Gold to change his data. The revised statement lowered the temperature but did not resolve the core disagreement over user losses.
The dispute comes at a critical moment for prediction markets. Platforms like Kalshi argue they differ from sportsbooks because users trade against each other, not against the house. Unlike traditional gambling companies, Kalshi operates as a regulated exchange. It does not set odds or take the opposite side of bets.
“Kalshi has built a platform where there is no system, no algorithm, no house,” said John Bivona, Kalshi’s head of federal government relations. “People decide the price and compete fairly against each other.”
Yet critics say that structure may still favor professionals. The Citizens report suggests experienced traders and sophisticated firms often profit at the expense of casual users.
