AUGUSTA, Maine (Diya TV) — A new campaign polling memo released this week places Dr. Nirav Shah in the lead of Maine’s crowded Democratic primary for governor, reinforcing earlier survey results and offering the clearest snapshot yet of a race that has seen little public polling.
The internal survey, conducted by Hart Research Associates between Jan. 15 and Jan. 19, finds Shah with 35% support among 502 likely Democratic primary voters statewide. That gives him a 22-point advantage over his nearest competitor and more support than his next two rivals combined, according to the memo first reported by the Midcoast Villager. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Shah, a former director of the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention who became a familiar public figure during the COVID-19 pandemic, leads a five-way field vying to succeed term-limited Gov. Janet Mills. Businessman Angus King III and former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree trail with 13% support each, followed by Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 11% and former state Senate President Troy Jackson at 9%. Another 18% of respondents said they were undecided, underscoring how fluid the contest remains.
“The survey shows Dr. Shah leading in every part of the state, across all ideological segments of the Democratic primary, and with every age group — from voters under 35 to those over 70,” said Fred Yang, the Hart Research pollster who conducted the survey. “No other candidate demonstrates comparable geographic or demographic breadth of support.” Yang also noted that 72% of Shah’s supporters describe themselves as “strongly” backing him, a measure campaigns often point to as a sign of durability.
Hart Research Associates is a nationally recognized Democratic polling firm that has worked on recent high-profile races, including Gov. Andy Beshear’s reelection in Kentucky and Gov. Wes Moore’s successful campaign in Maryland, according to the Shah campaign’s polling memo. The firm has also conducted surveys for U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia and U.S. Sen. Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland.
Because the poll was commissioned by Shah’s campaign, political observers caution that it should be viewed carefully. Campaign-sponsored polls are often selectively released and framed to highlight a candidate’s strengths. Still, the findings stand out in a race where virtually no independent polling has been made public and where many Democratic voters are likely still forming opinions.
Shah’s campaign argues the numbers reflect genuine momentum rather than a fleeting advantage. “These results aren’t an outlier — they’re a trend,” said campaign manager Kayla vanWieringen. She pointed to packed town halls and field events across the state, including a recent gathering in Saco that drew more than 130 attendees, as evidence of growing grassroots support.
Shah himself struck a measured tone, emphasizing that early polling does not guarantee victory. “These results are encouraging but the work of earning trust never stops,” he said in a statement. “Our focus remains the same: earning every voter’s support by listening, learning, and outlining real solutions to Maine’s most pressing issues — from housing affordability to quality health care.”
The campaign also highlighted organizational strength beyond the poll numbers. In its first ten weeks, Shah’s campaign raised $510,000, according to campaign figures, and secured endorsements from 3.14 Action, a national group that backs candidates with science and technical backgrounds, and IMPACT, which supports South Asian political engagement and leadership. Shah is also the first and only Democrat in the field to publicly release internal polling.
The Democratic gubernatorial primary is scheduled for June 9, the same day Republicans will hold their own unsettled primary contest.
