Hoover Institute poll predicts Clinton over Trump in California

SAN FRANCISCO (Diya TV) — With the presidential election now less than one week away, a new poll conducted by Stanford University’s Hoover Institution shows Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton capturing California’s 55 electoral votes by defeating Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Hoover Institution’s Golden State poll, which was administered by the survey research firm YouGov and designed in conjunction with Stanford University’s Bill Lane Center for the American West, gives Clinton a 54 to 30 percent lead.

“The question with Donald Trump isn’t whether he loses in California, it’s how low does he go,” said Hoover Institution research fellow Bill Whalen. “If he finishes below 35 percent that puts Republicans down the ticket in competitive congressional races in serious jeopardy.”

If the prediction runs true to form, Trump’s shortcoming would represent the poorest showing from a Republican in California in the post-Reagan era, even worse than the 1992 election when Ross Perot siphoned off voters from George H. W. Bush and left the Republican nominee with just 33 percent of the vote.

The survey was conducted between Oct. 4 and 14, and featured 1,250 likely voters in the upcoming general election in California. The full results of the survey, which has a margin of error of +/-3.28 percent for the full weighted sample, can be found here.

The cornerstones of Clinton’s support in California are millennials, minorities, women and independents.

According to the survey, among voters aged 18 to 29, Clinton leads 64 to 18 percent. She holds a 63 to 24 percent advantage among Hispanics and a 57 to 22 percent edge among Asians. Women prefer Clinton to Trump by a 55 to 27 percent margin. So-called “party preferences” Californians favor Clinton 51 to 23 percent.

Trump received 76 percent support from California Republicans, which was 11 percent less than Clinton’s Democratic support. The only demographics in which Trump leads are conservatives (65 to 21 percent) and voters 65 and older (47 to 43 percent), according to the survey.

“A big question going in was whether the young voters, many of whom supported Bernie Sanders in the primary, would vote for Clinton in November rather than abstain or vote for Jill Stein,” said Bruce Cain, a Stanford University political scientist. Even in a state where Clinton was destined to win, they are strongly supporting Clinton (64 percent) mainly because more than any other age group they oppose Trump.

The poll also attempted to gauge the voting populous on the various propositions on this year’s ballot.

One of those, Prop. 64, which would legalize the recreational use of marijuana, enjoys a 56 to 34 percent lead. Almost expectedly, support for the measure wanes as voters age. 69 percent of millennials are in support of the measure, according to the survey, while opposition doubled among voters 65 and older. Democratic support for the measure currently sits at 66 percent, according to those surveyed, while 59 percent of Republicans are opposed, it said. The measure is winning big amongst Independents, where 61 percent are in favor and only 27 percent are opposed.